We do not have any reliable methods to predict natural disasters you designate . Satellites offer us the possibility to observe hurricanes and other aspects of climate and building warn of danger . Earthquakes and tsunamis caused by earthquakes do not give enough clues to land fires . Volcano is to give more notice, but as we saw with Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo ( sp ? ) , People tend to wear for a long term and ignore the warnings listed .
Earth scientists use to measure and predict fractal Natural Disasters
College Park , MD ( January 30 2002 ) Predicting the size, location and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible , but now , earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes , floods , earthquakes , volcanic eruptions , forest fires and landslides using fractals.
A fractal is a mathematical formula of a repeating pattern in a wide range of size and time scales . These patterns are hidden in more complex systems .
A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river . Small tributaries join to form larger and larger
method to predict earthquakes : electrical conductivity measurements in soil ( in search of water bodies ) . It is not very reliable. He was tried in Greece for 25 years ... VAN method
Volcano : . with statistics and seismic measurements magma chamber angle
tsunami : no . Only observation buoys and warning can help (1 h forecast , enough to evacuate a beach )
Floods : delay few hours after it has rained . See prediction of rain delay 24 to 48 h .
A lot of methods involve extrapolation of a trend of the past ( it's been raining for the last 6 hours , so the river level rise ) , or looking for existing historical scenarios ( as exactly as during the flood 1999 great, the same pattern , same area , the same consequences ) .